Saxo Bank said it is shorting gold going into the next week’s much anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike.
“We are shorting gold into next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” Saxo Bank’s global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen said in a note published on Wednesday. “Based on the current gold price of $1328/oz, the implied target range for shorts is from $1275/oz to $1316/oz.”
Saxo Bank added that the average return on gold has been -2.44%.
“Shorting gold and silver into the previous five Federal Open Market Committee hikes has been a profitable strategy so far,” the note said.
The central part of the analysis was the assumption that markets are net-long gold and that the yellow metal’s prices are above their five-year average.
“As we approach hike number six on March 21, it's worth noting that gold is holding up well given a combination of U.S. yields pulling back, U.S. dollar weakness and further turbulence around team Trump with the recent firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,” Van-Petersen said.
After the Fed rate hike, Saxo Bank expects gold prices to go up.
“It's worth noting that gold has done a good job of bouncing back up and moving to new highs after the Fed hike, which could imply a tactical negative bias going into the Fed meeting, which flips over to a positive bias after the meeting.”
Another major pro-gold risk is trade war escalation, noted Van-Petersen.
Main downward drivers for gold this week have been stronger U.S. dollar and risk-on investor appetite, according to Kitco’s senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.
“The gold bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading,” Wyckoff wrote on Thursday. “First resistance is seen at $1,320.00 and then at $1,325.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,313.20 and then at $1,309.00.”
Reference: Kitco
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