• Oil price optimism would be 'misplaced' in early 2018, strategists say

    26 Dec 2017 | Economic News


There's little reason to expect oil prices to extend gains through the first quarter of 2018, energy strategists have told CNBC.

The prospect of rising U.S. shale production, subdued price movements and intensifying geopolitical risks is likely to offset a rally in prices at the start of next year, the analysts said.

Harry Colvin, director and senior economist at Longview Economics, told CNBC in a phone interview that he was "pretty bearish" over the price of oil over the next three months.

Oil prices have recovered well over a third of their value since hitting 2017 lows in June. The gains are largely due to the global supply cuts implemented by OPEC and non-OPEC producers at the start of the year.

What will happen with US shale?

In recent months, U.S. shale producers have surprised market participants with how quickly they have ramped up production in the wake of rising prices. Almost all increases in American oil production over the last few years have stemmed from shale, which in total accounts for nearly two-thirds of the country's existing output.

Colvin said it would be "easy" for oil to go to $50 a barrel by the end of the first quarter, before adding he would "not be surprised" to see levels as low as $45 a barrel.

'Volatility killer'

OPEC, Russia and nine other producers agreed to extend their deal to keep 1.8 million barrels a day off the market through the end of 2018. Having extended the deal once already, the producers again reached an agreement at the end of November to try to drain a global crude glut.

OPEC's latest deal was most likely a "volatility killer," Chris Main, energy strategist at Citi, told CNBC in a phone interview.

'Bullish catalysts in short supply'

"The major price driver in the first quarter of 2018 will be geopolitical developments," Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in an email to CNBC.

While Brennock cited Iran's relationship with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia as geopolitical risks worthy of keeping an eye on, he argued it was likely to be only a "matter of time" before Venezuela's worsening debt crisis started to significantly hamper the OPEC members' oil production.

The South American country has the largest proven oil reserves in the world but, amid intensifying economic pressure, its production levels have decreased to levels not seen in more than 30 years.


Reference: CNBC
MTS Gold Co., Ltd.
40,42,44, Sapsin Road, Wang Burapha Phirom Sub-district, Pranakorn District, Bangkok, 10200
Tel. 0 2770 7777 Fax. 0 2623 9366 E-mail: support@mtsgoldgroup.com